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Sunday, December 2, 2007

Opinion: 'Five Key Points From The Activision/Blizzard Merger'

- Early on Sunday, a surprising press release debuted on the wires - one that revealed Activision and Vivendi Games were merging, in a complex, yet-to-be-approved deal that will end (providing regulators and Activision shareholders agree) with a 52% majority Vivendi-owned 'Activision Blizzard' entity trading on NASDAQ.

But what are the major points and lessons we should derive from this mammoth deal? There are a plethora, of course, but here are some of the key points we think you should take from the Activision and Vivendi Games merger announcement:

1. Activision Is The Dominant Partner
You can read this multiple ways, but in general, the company whose chief exec becomes CEO in a 'merger' such as this is in the driving seat. One good, if more extreme example of this was the GameStop/EB 'merger', which concluded with the EB executives and name largely removed from positions of power in the company.

In this case, Activision boss Robert Kotick will be President and Chief Executive Officer of Activision Blizzard, and Vivendi Games' Bruce Hack will be CCO of the combined company. Vivendi is still majority shareholder, but as for who's running the business - you do the math.

2. Blizzard - New Billing, Same Independence
One of the intriguing things about the old Vivendi structure was that, even when Martin Tremblay joined to run Vivendi's publishing, it was specified: "World Of Warcraft creator Blizzard Entertainment has been designated a stand-alone division reporting to VU Games' CEO, and is not part of Tremblay's product development mandate."

And it's the same deal, more or less, in the new system - Mike Morhaime will continue to serve as President and Chief Executive Officer of Blizzard Entertainment, and no explicit reporting structure is even discussed in the release. Blizzard will continue to plough its own furrow, then.

3. World Of Warcraft's Revenues: Absolutely Staggering
And there's a reason why Blizzard have been and are left well alone - the clout that comes with this mindblowing statistic: "Blizzard Entertainment [which has "over 9.3 million subscribers" to World Of Warcraft] has projected calendar 2007 revenues of $1.1 billion, operating margins of over 40% and approximately $520 million of operating profit."

This disclosure separates out Blizzard's revenue from Vivendi Games and Vivendi very explicitly, and shows why the division has been key to holding Vivendi Games together in recent years.

4. Vivendi's Non-Blizzard Assets? Way Downplayed
One of the things that came up repeatedly in detailed responses to Game Developer's Top 20 Publishers Report was that Vivendi's non-Blizzard assets, which includes multiple development studios (Radical Entertainment, High Moon, Swordfish, Massive Entertainment) and publishing labels (Sierra, Sierra Online, Vivendi Mobile) have a relatively low profile, with confused brand messaging for the latter - and their relative unimportance is shown in this announcement.

In fact, all that is commented regarding those elements of the business is: "Mike Griffith will serve as President and Chief Executive Officer of Activision Publishing, which after closing will include the Sierra Entertainment, Sierra Online and Vivendi Games Mobile divisions in addition to the Activision business." Sure, it's also noted: "Vivendi Games also owns popular franchises, including Crash Bandicoot and Spyro" - but those franchises are thus far past their prime, minus their original creators.

5. Electronic Arts: Still Bigger, Probably Worried
While the release notes that the merger will be "creating the world’s largest pure-play online and console game publisher", with the "highest operating margins of any major third-party video game publisher", it sounds like Electronic Arts is still the largest - predicting net revenue of between $3.8 and $4.0 billion for its 2008 financial year, as opposed to $3.8 billion for Activision's (not concurrent) 2007 calendar year.

However, given that EA's BioWare/Pandemic and Mythic/Warhammer Online acquisitions were partly to plug a gap in the MMO and RPG genres - one that Blizzard is already a master in, then... not a worry for EA CEO John Riccitiello just yet, perhaps, but a pause for thought.

Comments

"Activision Is The Dominant Partner" but vivendi owns 52% of activision.

Right. Vivendi is giving Activision the ball (and Blizzard) and telling them to run with it in terms of operating the company.

They may have majority ownership, but they want Activision to control what happens next. Or that's how I see it.

Definitions.
Vivendi doesn't run their partners hands on, however, they are very much a dominant factor in business models for companies they own.

The ball (and Blizzard) is being giving to an, by then former, Activision chief exec but Blizzard Entertaiment =! Activision Blizzard.

When the merger is complete, Vivendi will own 68% of Activision Blizzard.

...if things go the way they're planning.

Should be interesting to see what happens to Blizzard considering right now Blizzard is Vivendi's life blood.

i dont know about the name activision blizzard. i wouldn't be surprised if the higher holder changes it in a few years

i dont know about the name activision blizzard. i wouldn't be surprised if the higher holder changes it in a few years

In my opinion, Blizzard did everything 100% right with WOW, the likes of which I've never seen in any other game -- from design, implementation, fun factor, and even customer service. They deserve to be where they are financially and it's a very good thing that the "Activision Blizzard" execs will be leaving them alone to continue their phenomenal work. It would be a crime to kill the only developer that knows how to make a great product _and_ follow through.

What is the name of the stock itself going to be?

Tempting post.., brother

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