I like the cut of Midway's jib, but I don't think they have enough evergreen franchises to keep them going on their own in the long term - either a big media company or another publisher may snap 'em up.

My long-term guess for Infogrames/Atari is bankruptcy - sorry, guys.

As for other companies - I still think Ubisoft is vulnerable to takeover by one of the 'big guys' in the long term. I think EA, Activision, and THQ are in for the long haul. I think Take-Two could be a little wobbly if its controversial side spooks shareholders too much.

Also, I think Interplay are long due a comeback. Fallout Online OMG!

I have a feeling that Mastiff may be going away. But they are just a small fry publisher.

Let's see what the crystal ball says:

I doubt that both Empire and Codemasters will remain independent for five more years. SCi/Eidos will probably also be gobbled up.

I fear JoWooD will go bankrupt eventually. They have some nice games coming, but I'm not sure if they've got good enough management to survive. They seem to make bad decisions all the time. CDV seems a little safer, but may suffer the same fate.

Enlight will probably become a pure developer within the next couple of years. Same with Bethesda and Novalogic.

Atari are in serious problems right now, but they may stay alive by selling assets. Hopefully they won't sell too much.

Midway's management are clowns, but they've got Sumner Redstone. They'll be around in some form or another in five years time.

I don't think we'll even remember Majesco in five years.

I think Ubisoft will remain independent, as will Vivendi. EA, Activision and Take 2 will continue like before.

Not sure about Capcom. Japanese publishers seem to be pairing up like crazy at the moment (Namco & Bandai, Sega & Sammy, Squenix & Taito, et.c.). Konami will probably stay independent.

DreamCatcher will probably stay, sadly. Strategy First seems to have got their problems sorted out in the short-term, but may attempt to break into other genres and fail miserably (again).

I don't see niche-based publishers like Matrix Games and Shrapnel Games disappearing. They'll probably continue as before, with more focus on digital distribution. There will probably also be room for smaller retail publishers who bring independent games to different parts of the world (companies like GMX, Black Bean, Lighthouse, Meridian4, Deep Silver, et.c.). Focus Home Interactive might grow into an international publisher. Ascaron seems to be growing too.

I don't think Interplay will come back. :)

Oh, and I wonder when and how 1C will be going for the western markets. They allready bought Cenega, but for now they don't seem to be interested in using them to distribute their games in Western Europe. I can't see them relying on smalltime western publishers for much longer, though.

I think Majesco will be around in 5 years, but doing budget titles and peripherals - but maybe their debt is already too high for them to survive that way. DOH.